Expected crop 2014 close to 100 million tones and supposed strong demand on Russian grains from the side of Turkey backed by forecasted history worst barley crop and low wheat crop opens good possibilities for sea-river sector despite generally bad situation on coasters and handy markets. Winter 14/15 and spring 2015 shall be supported by larger than previous crop at Kazakhstan as well. In case there will no political or trading complications connected with present situation at Eastern Ukraine, freight market will boost sharply but will be much more nervous than during season 2013/14 as it will be kept and supported by grains only. Azov sea ports of Ukraine could be empty this season due to continuous war at the region and so coasters able to load at least minimum commercial quantity 2700 mt of grains on draft less than 4,8 shall compete with sea-river firstly at Taganrog/Yeisk/Temryuk. Transshipment scheme this next season might service mainly long destinations and keep it’s limits for long voyages, short leg shipments of grain products shall be widely demanded. For the time being freight and transshipment cost to carry grain cargo from lower Don ports to Kavkaz roads keeps about USD 25,- pmt but may rise till august 10-15% owing to very limited competition between shipowners on this market. Very low handy market with freight rates Kavkaz-Egypt (mediterranean ports) abt 13-14 USD pmt gives charterers opportunity to do Azov-Egypt together with transshipment at less than USD 40,- pmt. Rate of USD 40,- pmt for shipment Azov/Egypt is equivalent to USD 21-22,- pmt Azov/Marmara (in respect of shipowners earnings) and shall be exceeded with starting of new season. On account of above longer destinations by sea-river tonnage shall not be feasible for charterers and most of sea-river ladies shall be involved in grain trade to Turkey mostly upto Nemrut Bay, while longer destinations shall be covered with transshipment. As a new fact we expect sharper gap between freight rates to Marmara and Mersin that could reach USD 20,- pmt or even more on the wave of market growth instead of todays USD 15-16 pmt. Backloadings to Russia shall be no popular owing to market rise. We expect level of USD 22-23,- Marmara/Azov to compete with grains. We expect good season for river shipowners able to reach Kavkaz anchorage as well, this will also boost internal river market including all older ladies of shestaya pyatiletka or similar types might be available among other «traditional cargoes» shipments of grains from Middle Volga region to Rostov/Azov region ports.
