Beginning of December 2014 shows peak freights for sea-river tonnage baked by weak rouble, ice campaign and overall bad weather which prevents normal contracts execution during almost all the autumn 2014 since 05 September and further. Freight rates exceeds same at the peak of 2007/2008 pre-crysis bubble and taking into consideration cheap fuel shipowners may gain even more profits than that days.
Freight difference between Azov and Novorossiysk reached unbelievable usd 40,- pmt taking shipment of 5-6000 mt wheat to Egypt Med. What will happen next? For the time being we still observe excessive cargo supply which pushes market up, but new sales are not clear firstly because of rouble instability, secondly because of freight risks and thirdly because of new year holidays coming. In reality we don't have much time - 2 weeks more prior christmas which makes maximum 5 inbound ice convoys of 15 vessels each before christmas/new year holidays.
Obviously very limited tonnage supply will keep the market at high levels during December and Charterers will continue to fight for tonnage in order to execute their sales contracts. From the other hand we see that BDI is seriously decreasing making coaster market more attractive for exporters. We consider it will take time to switch logistics to Sea ports and we may see a kind of sea-river freights decreasing but not earlier than at the end of January 2015 presuming no export tax or ban shall be applied to russian grains and rouble stay steady or continue falling to usd.
