Despite of early spring and removal of ice restrictions only 8 of 18 first days of March were favorable for navigation. This situation coupled with impossibility of transshipment at Kerch keeps sea-river market at February levels despite expected seasonal decreasing for 10-15%. Overall BDI looks positive as well as Black Sea coasters market – this make us suggest market will keep at this level for 2-3 weeks more. Crimea matter pushes rouble down giving more “fuel” for exporters. Moreover ministry of agriculture of Russia gave new forecast for export of grains adding 10% more and reaching 22 million tons for agricultural year 2013/2014. The only factor could be considered as negative is possible sanctions and ceasing of financing of Russian export from the side of western banks – once applied they may affect sea-river business dramatically, but the probability of such sanctions is quite low as far as major Russian exporters are connected with international traders like Glencore, Cargill and others.
