By joining Crimea Kerch straight becomes fully Russian. This means beside other issues that transshipment at Kerch/Kavkaz roads which was widely spread within last 10 years shall be possible only for quite limited quantity of vessels under Russian flag only. We expect that transshipment cost will raise 25-30% against same at season 2013/14 owing to more expensive Russian flagged tonnage tonnage and very limited number of players at this market why can do agreement on freight policy. This is also supported by expected good crop in Russia and complications at Ukraine – the main competitor on the Black Sea grain market. From the other hand excluding of non-russian flagged tonnage from transshipment may lead to tonnage deficit as voyage time from Rostov to Marmara and back is twice or more longer than Rostov-Kerch and back this means that same amount of vessels trading Azov ports will carry twice or more less cargo for the same period of time than a year ago. We expect sharp market increase but in any case upper limit seems to reach not more than usd 55-60 pmt of wheat basis Azov/Egypt Med at the peak.
