From our point of view sea-river market is expected to be under pressure of two main factors this year: good crop and strong demand from Turkey side backed by poor domestic crop and strong demand on coal from Turkey side as a consequence of production reducing after tragic events on coal mine this spring. Among treats we can outline risk of sanctions on Russia due to recent sad events at Eastern Ukraine which may affect exporters activity. Taking into consideration the above we can suggest following scenario of mart development within agricultural year 2014/15: July 2014 - freight boasts 40-50% under significant grain pressure and strong demand from Turkey side. Short bayram holidays at the end of the month might not influence much on the freight market. August 2014 - freight increasing continues 25-30% up to July levels owing to high volumes harvested and ready for exports. September 2014 - kurban bayram holidays and following decreasing activity of turkish buyers will cause usual seasonal failure, but not so significant - expected not more than 10-15% to August October 2014 - North-Easten winds leads to delays. This keep market at high level. New factor this season might be strong demand from Coal traders caused by reducing of production in Turkey after tragic events of spring 2014. Additionally it shall come grain from Kazakhstan and late products like sunflower seeds. Market may even recovery 5-10% from September level. November 2014 - Turkey imports more coal as for heating season. Kazakhstan wheat keep grain supply strong, weather may bring unpleasant surprises in view of water decreasing/rains and storms. Market goes a bit up 5-10% to October. December 2014 - Cristmas holidays may cause small decreasing in 3-rd decade, but we believe market will be strong, due to reducing of tonnage supply in view of forthcoming ice. Prior new year holidays Russian traders as usual sale more to go new year rest flawlessly. We expect December freight rates to keep near November levels January 2015 - Long Russian holidays which are taking over half a month will lead to market decrease, but export potential is still high for both grain and coal cargoes. We do not expect decreasing more than 10-15% to December rates February 2015 - The coldest month leads to significant time losses waiting for favorable weather or ice convoys. Market will depend on how bad the weather really will be, but we expect trading recovery after January holidays, so export potential will remain significant both grain and coal. March 2015 - beginning of March follows February. End of March after ice restriction will be eliminated can give small market decrease due to larger tonnage supply. Also coal supply shall be less than in February as heating season in Turkey comes to it’s end. We expect less 5-10% freight in end of March comparing to February April 2015 - freight less 5-10% against March as exporters still have enough crop for exports, but coal exporters has less activity May 2015 - holidays that taking first decade of May will press market down as consequence of low traders activity, but it still may remain enough cargo to trade Turkey. We expect decreasing 5-10% against April June 2015 - again seasonal downward movement, but we expect lowest level will still gain certain profits for shipowners.
