Being part of sea-river market since 2001 we could not find September to compare with present one except of year 2010 when grain export from russia was banned.

According to our observation freight market in September used to grow against June 20-30% in case of moderate crop and upto 40-50% in case of high crop unlike this year September showing decrease 21% against June 2019. Same situation was observed in 2010 when owing to low crop and treat of grain deficite inside Russia government imposed ban.

So obviously we live in situation of "ban without ban". What is the reason and what we would have during freight season in 2019/2020? These are main questions for all shipowners and medium to small size exporters.

Additionally need to say that Ukraine coaster freight market is at low side as well showing decrease of September freight rates against June for tonnages upto 10000 mt dwt. It could be explaned by the fact that Ukraine has more deep sea ports capacities than Russia in Black Sea region.

Do we face new reality or just temporary trading complications?

Tendency of last 5 years was consolidation of major grain exporters and moving from pure export and trading to full export and logistics companies. Most of major players like Aston, Rif, Yug Rusi and Nibulon in Ukraine has bought their own lighters and grab fitted bulkers in order to keep control on logistics coast, so made some coal exporters. It leaves not much space in fact for sea-river to rule the market as it was 5-10 years ago. In this part we may talk about a kind of new reality for coaster and sea-river markets. Assuming net cost of delivery of grains from Rostov to Kavkaz roads about usd 8 pmt (own lighters) and further delivery from Kavkaz to Marmara sea by grab fitted (self loading) 25000 tonner same 8 usd plus 2 usd roughly for fumigation and documentary purposes we have net cost of delivery of 25000 mt of wheat from Rostov to Marmara as usd 18 pmt which is very close for today's sea-river freight rate and obviously could be a kind of "red line" for freight market.

Nedless to say of consolidation of major importers. Market depends too much on TMO/GASK/SAGO etc tenders. And thi in it's turn initiate exporters to load bigger sea going tonnages starting from handy size and up.

No doubt that in case of significant crop pressure we may see certain sea-river market increase, but it seems not possible to keep much higher than advised "red line" for a long period of time.

Some narrow market products like millets, rye, brans, cakes, sugar beet pulp etc shall obviously remain for sea-river tonnages, but unfortunately not sufficeint fot todays size of sea-river fleet.

Some emerging markets like Iran, Syria, Crimea where major "white" exporters could not get to may support sea-river as well, but it seems to be another story.

As for our opinion future looks enough depressive for sea-river and coaster tonnages at Black Sea, but we re open for discussion with our collegues and partners.