Nowadays uncertain status of Kerch and general uncertainty of Kerch authorities in view of forthcoming Crimea referendum and futher international recognition makes it impossible to arrange transshipment at Kerch roads (ukrainean side). Transshipment business was significant part of sea-river sector both for dry bulk and liquid cargoes with total yearly volume of more than 10 m tonnes. Alternative to Kerch is Kavkaz – Russian side roads, but it put restrictions on flag (Russian flag only) of the vessels coming from Russia. Russian flag in its turn requires Russian register either maritime or river, maritime register being IACS member becomes much expensive for older sea-river vessels. Russian River Register requires Russian domicile and taxation, which also affects fleet economics. Moreover significant part of sea-river vessels is going Caspian, Volga, Kama and even White Sea during navigation and surely would go there this season reducing tonnage supply for transshipment. Additionally transshipment capacities of Kavkaz are not sufficient at the moment. Most of floating cranes and transshipment facilities working at Kerch roads flies non-russian flag and cannot be utilized for Kavkaz business unless they’re re-classed and re-flagged. In case Crime and Kerch become Russian territory there will be no difference between Kerch and Kavkaz and so sea-river season could be extremely hot: due to inability to provide sufficient transshipment capacities most of exporter will use straight shipments during season and this may cause tonnage deficit leading to very high freight market.
