Sometimes it seems that sea-river market is quite independents and insulated one. But nowadays we sea clear correation between lowest-in-history BDI and decreasing of sea-river. We suppose thing would not change withing march 2015 and market might drop upto zero talking about shipowners profit. In April we may see certian changes connected with new river/transit season which might require additional tonnage. Meanwhile we do not believe much in lovely freight of USD 100,- and more pmt on Marmara-Caspian direction owing to recent serious rouble devaluation. The volume of russian imports will be significantly less that in previous season. Also certain tonnage has been locked at Caspian due to early frosts in Nov 2014.

Correlation roots are quite simple and undertandable. Basicly charteres has two options of shipment: direct and transshipment scheme. Direct voyage could not be much more expencive than transshipment one. Very low handy market allows to take 25000 tonner at USD 12 basis Kerch/Egypt Med plus USD 8-9 for transshpment and USD 12 or near for voyage of old lady Azov-Kerch. Total makes USD 30,-32,- pmt. So rate over USD 35,- pmt is obviously not feasible for direct voyage. We suppose to see this level in March 2015.